Use of Machine Learning Methods to Reduce Predictive Error of Groundwater Models     

Tianfang Xu  Albert J. Valocchi  Jaesik Choi  Eyal Amir 《Ground water》2014,52(3):448-460

Quantitative analyses of groundwater flow and transport typically rely on a physically‐based model, which is inherently subject to error. Errors in model structure, parameter and data lead to both random and systematic error even in the output of a calibrated model. We develop complementary data‐driven models (DDMs) to reduce the predictive error of physically‐based groundwater models. Two machine learning techniques, the instance‐based weighting and support vector regression, are used to build the DDMs. This approach is illustrated using two real‐world case studies of the Republican River Compact Administration model and the Spokane Valley‐Rathdrum Prairie model. The two groundwater models have different hydrogeologic settings, parameterization, and calibration methods. In the first case study, cluster analysis is introduced for data preprocessing to make the DDMs more robust and computationally efficient. The DDMs reduce the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of the temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 82%, 60%, and 48%, respectively. In the second case study, the DDMs reduce the RMSE of the temporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 77%. It is further demonstrated that the effectiveness of the DDMs depends on the existence and extent of the structure in the error of the physically‐based model.  相似文献   

西藏高原南部雅鲁藏布江缝合带地区地壳电性结构研究   总被引：27，自引：14，他引：13       下载免费PDF全文

谭捍东  魏文博  Martyn Unsworth  邓明  金胜  John Booker  Alan Jones 《地球物理学报》2004,47(4):685-690

为了探测西藏高原南部雅鲁藏布江缝合带地区地壳浅部和深部构造沿东西和南北方向的变化特征,在雅鲁藏布江缝合带地区布设了三条南北向剖面(错那—墨竹工卡、亚东—雪古拉、吉隆—措勤),采用超宽频带大地电磁测深方法进行了地壳、上地幔电性结构探测研究,发现该区主要电性结构特征为：1. 雅鲁藏布江缝合带附近表层发育大规模的高阻体,岩体延伸最深达30km以上,是冈底斯花岗岩体的反映. 2. 雅鲁藏布江缝合带的南部有小规模的良导体,在其下方和北侧发育有大规模良导体. 3. 沿剖面从南往北壳内普遍发育良导体,各良导体主体间是不连续的,规模逐渐增大,总体北倾,在缝合带附近产状较陡. 4. 在雅鲁藏布江缝合带附近良导体由西往东规模逐渐增大,导电性逐渐变好,相对雅鲁藏布江在剖面上的位置逐渐南移. 这些重要的电性特征可能是印度板块向北俯冲所形成的,深部大规模的良导体特征沿东西向的差异可能是板块碰撞引起物质沿东西向运移作用的结果.  相似文献   

Thermal anomalies associated with shallow gas hydrates in the K-2 mud volcano, Lake Baikal     

Jeffrey Poort  Oleg M. Khlystov  Lieven Naudts  Albert D. Duchkov  Hitoshi Shoji  Shin’ya Nishio  Marc De Batist  Akihiro Hachikubo  Masato Kida  Hirotsugu Minami  Andrey Y. Manakov  Marina V. Kulikova  Alexey A. Krylov 《Geo-Marine Letters》2012,32(5-6):407-417

Thermal measurements and hydrate mapping in the vicinity of the K-2 mud volcano in Lake Baikal have revealed a particular type of association of thermal anomalies (29–121?mW?m^–2) near hydrate-forming layers. Detailed coring within K-2 showed that hydrates are restricted to two distinct zones at sub-bottom depths exceeding 70–300?cm. Temperature data from stations with hydrate recovery and degassing features all display low thermal gradients. Otherwise, the thermal gradients within the mud volcano are generally increased. These findings imply a more complicated thermal regime than often assumed for mud volcanoes, with important roles for both fluids and hydrates. The coexistence of neighbouring low and high thermal anomalies is interpreted to result from discharging and recharging fluid activity, rather than hydrate thermodynamics. It is suggested that hydrates play a key role in controlling the fluid circulation pattern at an early stage. At a later stage, the inflow of undersaturated lake water would favour the dissolution of structure I hydrates and the formation of structure II hydrates, the latter having been observed on top of structure I hydrates in the K-2 mud volcano.  相似文献   

Coral communities and reefs from Guerrero,Southern Mexican Pacific     

Ramón A. López‐Pérez  Luis E. Calderón‐Aguilera  Héctor Reyes‐Bonilla  José D. Carriquiry  Pedro Medina‐Rosas  Amilcar L. Cupul‐Magaña  María D. Herrero‐Pérezrul  Héctor A. Hernández‐Ramírez  Miguel Á. Ahumada‐Sempoal  Betsabe M. Luna‐Salguero 《Marine Ecology》2012,33(4):407-416

Corals in the Eastern Pacific extend south from the Gulf of California to Ecuador and oceanic Chile, and west from Colombia to Clipperton Atoll. Nevertheless, large stretches of the Mexican Pacific remain fundamentally unstudied. Therefore, to assess the current conditions of coral communities, a coastal fringe ～300 km long (17°40′ N, 101°39′ W to 16°46′ N, 99°49′ W) was surveyed within the Southern Mexican Pacific, between 2005 and 2009. Fifteen stony coral species were identified at 13 coral communities and six Pocillopora‐dominated fringing reefs, with Pocillopora verrucosa and Pocillopora damicornis the primary contributing taxa. Reef development was identified in embayments or behind rocks or islands that offered shelter from northern and northwestern winds. Observations of Pocillopora effusus, Pocillopora inflata, Porites lobata, Pavona clavus, and Pavona varians expanded the species known geographic ranges by several degrees of latitude, suggesting reef building fauna comprised a mixture of widespread and relatively rare Eastern Pacific corals. Results indicated greater live coral cover in the Ixtapa‐Zihuatanejo area (15–73%) than in the Acapulco localities, which had high algal dominance; the reefs in the latter region exhibited high erosion. Regional differences are likely the result of long‐standing anthropogenic pressures around Acapulco since 1950, when it became an important tourist destination. This paper is the first detailed report of ecologically stressed corals and coral reefs from the state of Guerrero on the Mexican Southern Pacific coast.  相似文献   

Modeling the effects of historical vegetation change on near-surface atmosphere in the northern Chihuahuan Desert     

Adriana Beltrn-Przekurat  Roger A. Pielke Sr.  Debra P.C. Peters  Keirith A. Snyder  Albert Rango 《Journal of Arid Environments》2008,72(10):1897-1910

Our goal was to evaluate effects of broad-scale changes in vegetation from grasslands to shrublands over the past 150 years on near-surface atmosphere over the Jornada Experimental Range in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, using a regional climate model. Simulations were conducted using 1858 and 1998 vegetation maps, and data collected in the field. Overall, the vegetation shift led to small changes in sensible heat (SH) and an increase in latent heat (LH). The impacts of shrub encroachment depended on shrubland type: conversion from grass to mesquite cools the near-surface atmosphere and from grass to creosotebush warms it. Higher albedo of mesquite relative to grasses reduced available energy, which was dissipated mainly as LH due to the deeper root system in mesquite. In creosotebush-dominated areas, a decrease in albedo, an increase in roughness length and displacement height contributed to the SH increase and warmer temperatures. Sensitivity simulations showed that an increase in soil moisture content enhanced shrub LH and a reduction in mesquite cover enhanced the temperature differences. The observed shift in vegetation led to complex interactions between land and surface fluxes, demonstrating that vegetation itself is a weather and climate variable as it significantly influences temperature and humidity.  相似文献   

Abundance, diversity and succession of aquatic Coleoptera and Heteroptera in a cluster of artificial ponds in the North German Lowlands     

Armin Bloechl  Barbara Philippi  Albert Melber 《Limnologica》2010,40(3):215-188

Our study describes and evaluates environmental influences on assemblages of aquatic Coleoptera and Heteroptera in artificial ponds situated near Lake Steinhude in Lower Saxony (Germany). We determined temporal dynamics and colonization patterns for 14 ponds of different age. In total, we recorded 4941 individuals that represented 87 species of aquatic beetles and bugs. Between 30 and 40 species were found in most of the ponds. Heteropteran species of the families Corixidae and Notonectidae acted as pioneer species in new ponds, while aquatic coleopterans predominated in older ponds. The results of Canonical Correspondence Analyses (CCA) showed that among the key factors affecting community structure were land use, vegetation cover, water chemistry and the age of the ponds. We found that the distribution of adjacent ponds on areas with different land use has a positive influence on the diversity and abundance of the aquatic insect fauna.  相似文献   

Tephra dispersal during the Campanian Ignimbrite (Italy) eruption: implications for ultra-distal ash transport during the large caldera-forming eruption     

Victoria C. Smith  Roberto Isaia  Sam L. Engwell  Paul. G. Albert 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2016,78(6):45

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Sediment source,turbidity maximum,and implications for mud exchange between channel and mangroves in an Amazonian estuary     

Nils Edvin Asp  Vando José Costa Gomes  Andrea Ogston  José Carlos Corrêa Borges  Charles Albert Nittrouer 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(2):285-297

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Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

V. Ruiz‐Villanueva  J. M. Bodoque  A. Díez‐Herrero  M. A. Eguibar  E. Pardo‐Igúzquiza 《水文研究》2013,27(24):3424-3437

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m³ s^–1) using indirect methods, but one‐dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m³ s^–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m³ s^–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35‐year return period) equivalent to the 50‐year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Tendances et ruptures au niveau des pluies journalières extrêmes en Côte d'Ivoire (Afrique de l'Ouest)     

Bi Tié Albert Goula  Emile Gneneyougo Soro  Williams Kouassi  Bernard Srohourou 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1067-1080

Résumé

Le changement climatique est une réalité qui affecte plusieurs variables climatiques dont les précipitations. Néanmoins, son impact sur les évènements extrêmes et en particulier sur les pluies journalières extrêmes n'est pas encore certain car peu de travaux y ont été consacrés en Afrique de l'Ouest. Dans ce contexte, il a été proposé de détecter d'éventuels tendances et ruptures dans les propriétés statistiques (moyenne, variance) des pluies journalières extrêmes à l'aide de tests statistiques locaux et régionaux. Pour détecter ces changements, les indices caractérisant la pluie maximale journalière annuelle (PJmaxan), le nombre annuel de jours de pluie dépassant 50 mm (NJsup50) et la contribution des pluies dépassant 50 mm dans les cumuls annuels (R(PJsup50/Pan)) ont été définis. L'analyse de 44 postes pluviométriques en Côte d'Ivoire sur la période 1942–2002 ne montre pas de changement généralisé ni en moyenne, ni en variance. Toutefois, en subdivisant la Côte d'Ivoire en régions climatiques homogènes, des tendances à la baisse ont été observées dans les régions IV (au Nord) et II (au Sud-Est).

Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz; Assistant editeur G. Mahé

Citation Goula, A.B.T., Gneneyougo Soro, E., Kouassi, W. et Srohourou, B., 2012. Tendances et ruptures au niveau des pluies journalières extrêmes en Côte d'Ivoire (Afrique de l'Ouest). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1067–1080.  相似文献